This is my online presence and thoughts. Those that do not agree, need not apply.
As an industry participant in the Hybrid market, I have a bit of insight.
Published on March 31, 2005 By relswick In Pure Technology
I graduated High School in 1990 and the gas prices were about a $1.00 a gallon in America. 15 years later, it is over $2.00. What will the price be in another 15 or even less, say 6-7? I would expect it to go up to at least $3.00 a gallon within 5-7 years, since China is exponentially growing as a market for new cars and there are obviously dwindling reserves. The tale looks grim in 20+ years from now. America will be in dire straights, although Europe will shine, due to their public transportation infrastructure. I am currently a Test Engineer of Battery Systems at Cobasys, see link below.

Back to Hybrids!

Toyota and Honda have lead the market and forced every other automaker to admit that there is profit to be made from the market segment. Ford now has the Escape. DiamerlerChrysler and GM are on the verge of releasing Hybrid vehicles as is every other automaker out there within the next 2 years. This is just the passenger market. Everywhere you look in the heavy duty segment, such as over the road trucks (not as much here), transit busses, Delivery vehicles, etc are also developing Hybrids. Hell, the Military is even getting into the act, which for them is a huge fuel savings! Toyota has said within 5 years (or less) every vehicle in their fleet will offer hybrid drivetrains as an option!

So, every vehicle manufacturer out there is ready to release new hybrid vehicles, which means that soon, the market will be flooded with Hybrids! What will happen once they are there, well I predict that they will then for the most part become a standard part of the vehicle, such as Electronic Fuel Injection has become, such as Anti-lock brakes, air bags, etc. Since the market will be flooded in a couple of years, I would guess about 5 years to saturation and standardization of hybrids as a normal vehicle. About the time gas should hit the $3.00/gallon mark.

I could provide links to reference of these future hybrids if anyone is interested, but I bet if you Google them, you'll find as much as I can or more, but let me know if your interested.

HYBRIDS are here, but are they too late?

Well, if you like Hybrids, you should look at Electric vehcles as well! They are probably economical for most and not that difficult to do.

Disclaimer: There is no confidential information related my position at Cobasys in this post, nor is there any reference to our customers. My views do not reflect the views of Cobasys as a whole nor in part.

Comments
on Apr 01, 2005
My father has been building electric vehicles for years here in New Zealand where the current price of fuel is NZ$1.25 cents a litre approx USD$5 per gal
his first car was pure electric had 24 batteries and a range of bugger all.
Next came his first and only hybrid (this is back in 1974)this car was powered by an old lancaster bomber starter motor hooked up to 12 batteries that were situated under the bonnet
whilst the rear sported a 1500cc VW powerplant.
The entire car was madeup of a hand made frame with a fibreglass coated polystyrene shell it featured pop up headlights (popped up by pulling a string) and a 1 gallon brass petrol
tank he used to get strange looks noisily pulling into a service station in this bright orange "sportscar"engine filling up with a pifiling amount of gas and whizzing off under electrics.
I could not find a photo of this 2nd car but heres his next 2 (1976 and 1977)




The car has gullwing doors and you could plug your shaver into a socket under the dash,The truck a bit more advanced has individual motors driving the rear wheels and batteries
housed under the rear tray It also had an electronic drive system and pendulum suspension and had a top speed of 100kph and range of approx 80km at this speed.
You could drive around all day at 50kph and the range increased to about 120km.
Now that was back in 1977 and due to a bit of misfortune he and his mate were not able to persue their dreams however they made 6 trucks 3 of which are still in use today.
I often wonder what the latest model EV would have been like if they had been able to get things off the ground.
My point is that electric vehicles are quite simply in our near future and the sooner we embrace this form of transport the better the worlds oil is not going to last forever so we do
need to start demanding that the tech be more fully explored so that the electric vehicles of tomorrow will be as good preformance wise as their fuel guzzling cousins
on Apr 01, 2005
You think you're paying a lot for your gas, try driving in the European Market, especially England where we pay over £5.50 a Gallon, the equivelant of nearly $9.00 a Gallon in your money, it nearly bankrupts an average family with 2 children, so think yourselves lucky that you live in the United States of America, where you are protected by your Government, from paying a "Real World" price!
on Apr 01, 2005

I would be interested to your current links on GM hybrids.  From what I have heard from local GM engineers, they have stopped their Hybrid plans.  Their spokesmen said "if people really wanted them, you would see more of them on the road".

If I could afford to switch cars around right now, I would buy the Honda Civic Hybrid.  I drive mainly highway, so it would average 50mpg.  The most fuel efficient car I own get 37.5 (obey the speed limits, and in warm weather).

I would love to have a US brand Hybrid car.  I could care less about the Escape - great, a small front wheel drive SUV that gets the mileage of a decent car (36 city/31 highway). 

What they need is a diesel Hybrid.  VW already has cars that get 50mpg on diesel.  Think what they could do with a hybrid.....

on Apr 01, 2005
The US is 10 years behind in getting hybrids to the market. Foreign automakers have a few offerings but they’re so ugly it had to be on purpose. It just seems like there is a global conspiracy to keep this technology down. Corporations get a bigger tax break if they buy there employees Hummers than the do a hybrid. If they would just make an electric car that looked cool the dam thing would sell. Have you seen the latest electric car from Toyota? Dam It’s like okay well make one but we are going to make you look like a fucking clown driving it. I live in the city and rarely go anywhere that takes longer than 1 hr. If I need to take a long trip I’ll rent a gasoline car. Give me an electric car that looks like a RX8, sold.
on Apr 01, 2005
Hybrid Bus from GM in Indianapolis, IN:
Link

A combined effort from GM and DCX, although just powertrain:
Link

Opel-Astra diesel hybrid:
Link

GM's concept car with hybrid:
Link

Running a search for 'hybrid' at www.gm.com produces 100 hits, which I believe is a max limit set verse actual:
Link

News blurb from the GM hybrid site says:
2006 - GM will introduce the Belt Alternator Starter hybrid system in the Saturn VUE (2007 model year). Provides 10 percent improved fuel economy and an affordable hybrid option for consumers.

2007 - GM will introduce the Belt Alternator Starter system in the Chevrolet Malibu. Provides 10 percent improved fuel economy.

GM will introduce the world's first two-mode full hybrid in full-size SUVs (Tahoe and Yukon). Provides at least a 25 percent improved fuel economy.

Here is the link:
Link

Here is a Cobasys press release with one of our customers, Azure Dynamics:
Link

These are all searchs I did at GM, which DCX and others will have similiar posts about their hybrid intentions as well.

on Apr 01, 2005
Hi Peter Wood,

I recall reading 4-6 years ago, that there are two appoaches to the issue of the price of gasoline and the effect OPEC has on it, which was first established in the (American only?) gasoline crises of the mid/late '70s.

America decided to tax the gas and go with the flow, letting the market dictate the price, per our Capatilist economy. Of course, what incentive does companies in America have to reduce the cost of gas, now that it is high? They lose revenue, unless someone nearby undercuts them drastically.

Europe however took a different approach, which established an arbitrary higher price of gasoline, but one, which would not fluctuate due to the supply/demand cycles and the power of oil producers, such as OPEC, to dictate prices by altering the supply of the oil. Now, correct me if I am wrong, but hasn't the price of gasoline in Europe been about £5.50 for a LONG time now? Perhaps at least 5 years.

As my Macro Econonmics college prof used to say, it all depends on the price of oil!

Rich
on Apr 01, 2005

10 percent improved fuel economy

LOL.  You can do that by driving 60 instead of 70 on the expressway.

A malibu gets about 30mpg- the "hybrid" would get 33. (And, I'm sure it will cost more)

I think you are also confusing a true Hybrid and a Belt Alternator Starter hybrid.  All the BAS Hybrid does is kick off the engine at idle to save fuel in stop and go traffic. 

GM did its Bus hybrids years ago.  But, a bus engine is completely different than a car engine.

I would love to think that GM would do something that competes with Honda.  I would love to have a car like the Cobalt or Ion that got 50 mpg.  But, I'm not holding my breath. 

on Apr 01, 2005
A hybrid is a hybrid is a hybrid. If even 1% of the nation drove hybrids, that would be 2.5 million drivers or there abouts. If even 10% of those go through a tank of gas a week, say 15 gallons, then that is a significant savings. As hybrids become more prevalent in the economy, they will become standard and it will not matter that it is just 3 mpg. Yes, there are more significant savings in full hybrids, but that is how the cookie crumbles.

Any hybrid has better savings in city driving verse highway driving as well.

BTW, a bus engine and car or truck engine operates in similiar fashions in that they both drive the wheels, it doesn't matter how, it is what they do. power at the wheels = power delivered from x% from the electric motor and y% from the gasoline eninge.

as to driving 60 on the highway verse 70, you can get more savings by going to 55, but how many will even consider that? FEW and very few or at least when it comes to a fuel savings issue. GM is doing a full hybrid Yukon and Tahoe, per their news post, so it isn't all that bad.
on Apr 02, 2005

A hybrid is a hybrid is a hybrid

No, not really.  A "Hybrid" also means to put a different brand engine in your car (a Chevy in a Ford).  Even GM distinguishes their BAS system from their Full Hybrid concepts.

Any hybrid has better savings in city driving verse highway driving as well.
 

Not true at all.  The Honda Civic Hybrid 5 speed gets 45 city and 51 highway.  You are forgetting how the tranny effects mileage.

BTW, a bus engine and car or truck engine operates in similar fashions in that they both drive the wheels, it doesn't matter how, it is what they do. power at the wheels = power delivered from x% from the electric motor and y% from the gasoline eninge.

On a very basic level, all engines function the same.  However, bus technology is not used when designing for cars and vise versa.  You don't use the diesel technology from a semi to design a car engine.  The dynamics are completely different.  Where you need power curves is not the same.  The gears or gear ration in the tranny is not similar, etc.

GM is doing a full hybrid Yukon and Tahoe, per their news post, so it isn't all that bad.
 

That's what they quoted at the beginning of the year.  But, if my inside sources are right, and they haven't been wrong yet, I wouldn't hold my breath on that.  They don't see the market in it because the gas hybrids don't exceed the mileage of a diesel in that large of a vehicle.  Why invent something new, when you already have a product that performs similar?

As for diesel, we don't need hybrids and new technology to get better fuel mileage.  A small diesel, which would be sufficient for a car the size of a neon or saturn, could get up to 75mpg.  However, you don't see them.  Why?  Because of the horsepower loss.  Just look what is on the road.  People drive fast and they drive big vehicles.  A small car with only adequate horsepower isn't what the general population wants, even if it does get amazing mileage. VW has a line of diesel cars (TDIs) available, and have so for years.  They get about 50mpg.  Do you see diesel cars dominating the American roads?  Other countries have moved to diesel to save fuel (and refinery costs) but America hasn't.  Why? 

I see the most hybrids around in Michigan around Ann Arbor.  Why?  Because that city attracts a lot of environmentally conscious people.  Once you get closer to Detroit, you are more likely to see a Yukon or Escalade driving 80.

Before hybrids can dominate, people will have to change their lifestyles.  Until people want to do that, hybrids won't be desirable to the mass population.

 

on Apr 04, 2005
everything is relative I guess. when I grduated in Miami in 1965 gasoline was 22 to 33 cents a gallon (seems like only yesterday). I think that Hybrids will be the "answer" that's applied to the current high fuel costs but, ultimately, that's too bad. doing so only serves to uderwrite the energy industies and their inflated fuel prices and will only serve to protect their string of record breaking quarterly profits.
on Apr 04, 2005
we're not protected by our government from anything. gasoline prices used to be regulated. they're not any more. the only regulation is "what the customer will pay". the prices in the U.S. are unwarranted and only a few years ago would have been illegal.
on Apr 24, 2005
Be happy and do not look only inside. Here,In Spain, 1 lit is 1 euro what means that one gallon is about 6 dolars.O.K. take the microsoft calculator and make the change, I hate calculators.do you know how many things I did with 6 dolars in a Rodeo only ten years ago?
on Nov 29, 2005
Rich

I have been following the Ovonics story for some time but I recently came across an article that said.

"To add insult to injury, it's unclear how long the NiMH battery can maintain its lead in electric and hybrid vehicles. The Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technology is focused on lithium ion and lithium polymer batteries as the long-term battery solution for electric and hybrid cars. It is working with a French company called SAFT that manufactures both NiMH and lithium batteries. DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX), working with SAFT, has introduced a hybrid car that uses a lithium ion battery. "

Do you think that Cobasys has got it wrong with the NiMH route and should they be going with the Lithium ion battery
on Dec 09, 2005
There is are a few huge problems when it comes to hybrids...

1) They are overpriced for what you get... you pay a few thousand dollars more for a hybrid than a regular car of the same size, options... etc.

2) You have to replace the battery (at almost $5,000 a pop) every 5 or 6 years. Which means there will be a very small resale market for them.

3) There is a huge electrical shock risk during accidents and for emergency workers.

The gas mileage is a definite plus, but how long would it take you to recoup the difference... all in all, there is no real savings with a hybrid.